Each day I am going to post my analysis of each City Council race. Keep in mind that this is an early analysis and, in some cases, will change as we get closer to the election. As November comes closer, I will do another analysis to see if any of the races changed significantly from now. Let’s start with At-Large 1:
As the incumbent in this race, he already has the upper hand. Since 1983, only 7 incumbents who ran for reelection lost, 2 of which were at-large seats (interestingly but not necessarily telling, both were At-Large 1 seats). So incumbents already have an advantage in every race.
Stephen Costello isn’t the most liked council member right now since he is the one who propelled the drainage fee fiasco. It has yet to be seen how many voters know that he is the one who pushed this through. Touting himself as a conservative with experience in flooding and drainage got him elected in the first place, but many people now see him as neither conservative nor as helpful with the flooding issue as he originally said.
With $91,857.55 in his coffers (and $15,000 in loans) as of the July reporting period and endorsements from Houston Professional Fire Fighters Association and the Houston Police Officers’ Union, he might be able to pull off another win. Let’s not forget that although many are outraged by the drainage tax, it did garner enough support to pass in the last election, so it will be interesting to see if this is a big enough issue to cause people to vote against him.
If you are infuriated with the drainage tax, then Scott Boates is probably your ideal candidate, as this is his main issue. I think Boates is a very impressive person and having heard him speak to a group, he seems knowledgeable and quick on his feet; however, his last campaign finance form shows only $11,713 in the bank with $1,200 in loans. Not bad for a first campaign, but that is not nearly enough to send out mail pieces and other items to get his name out. He is going to have to put boots to the ground and get out to every meeting there is between now and the election to get his name out. Many candidates can do well without excess amounts of money as long as his campaign is organized and articulate.
He ran for City Council in 2009 against Stephen Costello and lost with 9.04% of the votes. He is a member of the Progressive Coalition, and the only website listed on his Facebook page is www.progressivecoalitionhousotn.com. He definitely found his niche with certain voters, but I doubt he will earn much more than the 9.04% he received last time.
“I’m running against Costello for Houston City Council At-Large Position #1. I am not voting for any incumbent other than maybe the Jones. Jones is the only incumbent that I am considering voting for. I haven’t decided if I am going to vote for Fernando Herrera for Mayor of Houston, but I do know that I am not going to vote for Annise Parker. James Partsch-Galvan http://www.mayorgalvan.com. Hello Everyone! Did anyone listen to CoasttoCoastAM last night? I am delicating my campaign this year to the Ron Paul Revolution and also galvanizing to overthrow/abolish the Federal Reserve! The Federal Reserve is a Private Banking Cartel (Mafia) that must be overthrown in order to take back our government here in the United States. We cannot allow the bankster$ in Basel, $witzerland to tell us what to do. I support the bombing and nuking of $witzerland! $witzerland is a Monetary Terrori$t Country. I used to live there in 1991-1992.”
So if the vote was taken today, I would guess that Costello would win again, but we still have a long time before the election, and the political climate is definitely there for Boates to take over.